Category: Models

[caption id="attachment_1308" align="alignright" width="401"] https://pixabay.com/en/darts-dart-board-bull-s-eye-game-102919/[/caption] Since we deal with predictive models, one common question we get is "how accurate is your model"? First of all, I need to say that we LOVE to get that question. It signifies that the institution has some level of buy in -- that they aren't just taking our expertise on faith. Unlike the quality of brake pads, we don't want you to take our word for it. When responding to this question, though, there's a bit of a conundrum. On one hand, I want to give an answer. I hate evasive responses to questions, so I want to make sure I give a clear, concise response. On the other hand, there is a lot of nuance in the response. It depends on what the…

I didn't invent statistics nor did I invent machine learning.  I'm not a published expert in either field.  However, I was on Jeopardy, so that's got to give me some street cred to be able to talk about the two techniques.  The discussion usually boils down to this -- regression is a more "pure" form of data analysis (where the causal relationship between the data and the outcomes are more clearly related) while machine learning is a more brute force approach to prediction (and other analyses).  I wanted to put my position out there and see what does or doesn't resonate with colleagues. There's a great Stack Exchange thread on this topic where many folks have chimed in with their take on the two approaches.  I've done a bit of…

  In the predictive analytics space, there is always talk about secret sauce.  The roots of it make sense to me.  Think about the financial industry...if you built a model that could predict future trends in stock prices, you'd probably want to keep that a secret.  In the education space, though, the logic starts to break down. First of all, education is a highly collaborative space and it represents a social good.  Keeping a valuable secret that might help students succeed is antithetical to the nature of education.  Second, education is a complex ecosystem of people, processes, policies, content, etc.  I would have strong doubts about anyone who claimed to have a formula that worked for a wide variety of institutions.  Third, I think it creates an element of distrust.…